As with all the discussions on national polls, it’s necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don’t have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don’t reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don’t have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I’ve looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Those polls don’t account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off
It’s what we have and it’s Harris’ starting point.
Where she goes from here? 🤷♂️ But if we don’t track what we have NOW, we won’t be able to see how she improves (or doesn’t) a week from now, a month from now, or two months from now.
When we get another “national polling suggests…” article in October, it will be interesting to re-run the stats and compare them to this. They should be VASTLY different.
But what makes it interesting is the progress she makes between now and then.
As with all the discussions on national polls, it’s necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don’t have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don’t reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don’t have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I’ve looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here’s the map:
Those polls don’t account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off
Yup, like I say, this is the bottom.
What does that even mean? You sure spent a lot of energy spreading completely useless and out of date information.
It’s what we have and it’s Harris’ starting point.
Where she goes from here? 🤷♂️ But if we don’t track what we have NOW, we won’t be able to see how she improves (or doesn’t) a week from now, a month from now, or two months from now.
When we get another “national polling suggests…” article in October, it will be interesting to re-run the stats and compare them to this. They should be VASTLY different.
But what makes it interesting is the progress she makes between now and then.